Respected Modiji,
I am a proud voter of Bihar, who voted for BJP in the recent assembly election of 2015 but unfortunately, crores of voters like me were disappointed when the results came out. I am not writing this letter just to find fault with planners, organizers and people responsible with making strategy of election campaign in Bihar, nor I believe like others that it is a very big defeat for BJP. In fact it was a fight against a simple math which gave perfect advantage to Nitish-Lalu led Mahagathbandhan from day one but your campaign made us believe that this advantage has been neutralised. Nitish, a shrewd politician had analysed perfectly well on the basis of 2014 Loksabha election that neither he nor Lalu can win Bihar if they fought separately and therefore stitched a winning combination of 15.8%JDU + 20.1% Lalu + 8.4% Congress = 44.3% against 29.4% BJP + 6.4% LJP Paswan + 3% RLSP = 38.8% ie. approximately 5.5% more vote share aligned in favor of Nitish-Lalu-Congress Gathbandhan.
BJP was supposed to break this advantage by aligning more allies and/or by other strategic methods, which unfortunately it failed to achieve. Naturally, in a highly polarized election where even a minor 1 to 2% vote swing can bring dramatic results, BJP suffered a very high casualty due to its inability to bridge this gap of approximately 5.5% vote share, which was the advantage with Nitish-Lalu combine from day one.
I don't think an organisation, which arose from 2 seats in parliament to a ruling position in the center today, should unnecessarily get submerged in disappointment and gloom over this issue as victory and defeat are part & parcel of our every day life. However, as I find you always saying, we must learn from our mistakes and make ladder to reach top from the very stones thrown by opponents, I would like to discuss a few points which I think was a blunder by our strategic planners including you and which must be addressed in future.
1. No local face in Bihar :
I think this was a strategic blunder.Let us analyse it why? Mr. Amit Shah did his first blunder in Delhi when he projected Kiran Bedi at a last moment, just a few days before election to counter Kejriwal. This move was wrong in 2 ways.1st, it gave a wrong message to lakhs of BJP cadre that party can dump them any time by installing an outsider just to win an election. They were thoroughly disappointed and discouraged which reflected in the Delhi result. 2nd, the projected CM face didn't get enough time to work extensively with the voters and consolidate his position.
Any way, Shah learnt the lesson and decided not to project any local leader in the next coming elections. Consequently, he didn't project any local leader as CM candidate in next 3 elections which took place in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand; and yet won all of them. However, I am afraid to say he learnt a wrong lesson. I firmly believe that state elections can't be won by projecting simply a central leader's face, including such a powerful magnetic leader like Narendra Modi, bypassing local leadership. Modi's face could be a force multiplier as it happened in MP, Gujrat, Rajsthan, Uttarakhand but can't be a solo state winner as we saw in Bihar. Now, opponents of my view may raise a question as to why in that case, BJP was successful in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand where no local CM face was projected? My answer to this question is, in these states opponents of BJP too hadn't projected any CM face and therefore, both the parties stood at the same level playing field. Consequently, PM's face made all the difference as force multiplier. But this was not the case in Bihar, where Mahagathbandhan projected a highly successful CM face in shape of Nitish. All pre poll surveys were saying clearly that Nitish's acceptance rate as CM is the highest in Bihar, in spite of that no local face was projected to counter it. Bihar BJP had a very effective and a very good & popular face in shape of Sushil Modi, who was deputy CM during BJP-Nitish joint govt. People remembered his face because his face too appeared frequently in media highlighting achievements of joint govt. He was finance minister in Nitish govt. and main architect of whatever development Nitish govt. could achieve at that time. So, if BJP had projected him as its CM face, people would have recognized him immediately, that yes, he was the BJP man with Nitish, who brought development in Bihar together. Besides, he comes from an OBC background, was an added advantage which BJP could have en cashed easily by highlighting this fact with slight imagination. Any way, that opportunity was missed by the planners, I have no doubt about it.
Not only that, BJP think tank committed even a bigger blunder than above one, by projecting only 2 leaders, both outsiders in shape of Amit Shah and Modi on the posters of Bihar; outsiders in the sense that they both belonged to Gujrat, outside Bihar. Very big posters overlooked voters of Bihar with not a single local leader visible on it . Why was Shah's face included side by side Modi in stead of local leaders, I am yet to understand the logic behind it ? Though a correction perhaps was made later on, but it was too late because Lalu was able to highlight this point successfully by then. A defensive PM was forced to clarify this point but enough damage was already done by that time, besides, the explanation too was not convincing.
My Conclusion & prescription :
No state election can be won without a number of efficient, loyal and popular local leaders. Central leadership should try to cultivate and groom local leadership with much care and affection, same way as a gardener grooms various flowers of his garden. I strongly believe that a local CM candidate should be democratically elected by the party much before actual state election, may be 3 or 4 yrs before, and he should be given enough time to lead from the front. Central leadership role must be confined to see if (1) this person is unflinchingly loyal to the party or not, what is his loyalty history, (2) this person has leadership quality in him or not, can he work in a team and inspire his team mates, what is his track record in this regard, and (3) has this person a vision for his state, can he work tirelessly to fulfill his vision.
I am afraid to say central leadership has failed so far in projecting and grooming local leadership. Mr Shah might be a good strategist but I have not seen any thing so far on ground which gives any indication that he is moving in this direction with a long term prospective.Take the example of Delhi and UP. Almost 9 months have passed but Delhi BJP is still a rudderless unit drifting here and there without any purpose or planning in absence of a future CM face. Congress is far ahead of BJP in this regard. Likewise, UP election is not so far, yet there is no local popular face which could evoke confidence among people towards BJP. If this drifting of local unit continued and Shah thinks he can win UP election by projecting only Modi's face as he did in Bihar, he is bound to face same water loo as he faced in Bihar. Once again, Modi's face could be a powerful force multiplier but can't be a solo winner of state election. It is still not too late, Shah must address this issue immediately in UP, elect a prospective CM face there, ask him to prove his leadership quality and galvanize the state unit from its slumber.
2. Lack of strong network among SC, ST and OBC :
As analysed above, the biggest reason for defeat in Bihar was the vote share math, which was decisively against BJP from day one. Shah tried his best to beat this math but failed miserably because of two fundamental reasons ; 1st, his assessment of alliance leaders clout among these sections of people proved to be wrong and 2nd, BJP's own performance among these sections of people proved to be less than what it achieved in 2014. A thorough analysis must be made to know the reasons of its almost 5% less vote share performance in compare to 2014 results.However, it is to be noted that even if BJP had performed at 2014 level,still it would have been short of at least 10% to clinch a decisive victory over Lalu-Nitish combine. It is to be further noted that such vote share can't be increased over night without a long term planning. It requires a lot of hard work on ground with high visibility to the targeted section. It may take years to succeed if every thing goes in a planned manner. Stitching a combination of sc, st and obc leaders outside your own party is an option no doubt, but it is just a temporary solution, not a permanent one.Other parties representing these sections coming to your alliance have their own self interest, and therefore, can ditch the alliance any day if it doesn't suit them. Best option is to cultivate your own band of young leaders from SC, ST & OBC communities and groom them to perform party's "increase your base vote " program. A lot of hard work is needed to achieve this goal. Fortunately, I see a silver lining in this defeat in Bihar, as it has given a timely reminder to BJP central leadership to work tirelessly in remaining three and half years still left in next 2019 Loksabha election, and this time frame is sufficient to bring substantial change on ground both in Bihar and UP.
I am pained to say that 3 Prime Minister's social security schemes ie.1.Atal Pension Yojana, 2.PM Suraksha Bima Yojana and 3.PM Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana along with one Mudra Bank Yojana - these 4 PM schemes have a potential to bring revolutionary change in life of OBC, SC and ST, and bring them into BJP fold in a large number but no focus was given to take advantage of spreading vote share through these schemes. You can break the sway of caste politics only if these people feel a genuine urge to go to BJP for solution of their problems and help. You always invite innovative ideas to conceive and implement schemes related to various aspects of governance. Same way I suggest, please invite innovative ideas on how BJP can penetrate in lower and deprived sections of society. BJP president must chalk out an action plan on the basis of these suggestions.
My Conclusion & Prescription :
Bihar results have given a clear lesson that until you increase your vote share in OBC, ST & SC section of society, forget any victory against a combined strength of opposition parties in any state, be it Bihar or UP. Bihar election has presented a model for dying opposition parties to unite and fight for survival. Previously, opposition used to unite against Congress but now they are trying to unite against BJP. It is a recognition of BJP's rising strength on one side and gradual decline of Congress on other. However, BJP must concentrate on spreading its core strength in lower and downtrodden sections of society, if it wants to counter their combined strength.They will try more and more to raise Mandal 2 as Lalu successfully did in Bihar, to emotionally blackmail backward & dalit voters.This is my personal experience that a dalit or any one from any community becomes indebted to you, if you have helped him or her in any difficult situation. BJP should form help groups at each village level to help these sections of people in their hours of need. PM's 4 schemes as mentioned above could prove much helpful in achieving this target. Innovative ideas must be invited from young think tanks and implemented to achieve this goal.
A strong network of BJP among obc,sc,& st is all the more essential from one another angle also. BJP's vote share is almost zero in a big segment of population ie. Muslims. This is one of the biggest disadvantage BJP faces against its opponents. To offset this disadvantage, it has no other alternative except to enhance its vote base among lower & downtrodden segments of population. Therefore, BJP needs to double its efforts to spread party's vote base in this particular segment of society.
3. Muslim Vote Bank : BJP a handicapped non starter :
BJP is handicapped by birth. In any race, one who starts early is the possible winner but BJP is handicapped in the sense that whenever the race begins, its opponents are far ahead of it on the first whistle itself because of 17% Muslim vote share in Bihar and 19.5% in UP. Since independence, it has been instilled in Muslim community's mind that BJP is their enemy no1. Successive pseudo secular governments, specially Congress in center and SP, JDU, CPI, CPM, Mamta, Mayavati etc.in states, have been practicing vote bank politics by throwing lollipops to them. Once they realized that Muslim community can be manipulated to vote en block like a herd of sheep, they adopted two methods to achieve this goal ;1st, throw some lollipops to them to show they are their biggest well wishers, and 2nd, always create a psycho fear in their mind against BJP in order to polarize their vote in support of these parties. Unfortunately, BJP has been continuously raising objection to this appeasement policy of its opponents, which it thinks is against the principle of equality. They want equal treatment to both the communities. However, this opposition of appeasement makes suspicion of Muslim community all the more firm that BJP is their enemy. Any right thinking Muslim with an impartial analysis can very easily see through this game but as I said above, this community has a characteristics of a herd mentality.
What should be the strategy of BJP in such a scenario towards this community? I think your 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" was the first real and genuine strategy, which has a potential to turn this community towards BJP. You started Loksabha campaign on a correct note and I think a good number of muslims voted you also. Having said this, I am pained to say that in recent past, messages going from BJP to this community is not so encouraging. Even your campaign in Bihar disappointed a literate section of this community, which is not biased like others. In order to counter Lalu, you said these Mandal parties are plotting to cut reservation quota and transfer it to religious communities to appease them. Technically you are correct because Lalu, Nitish & Congress all of them have tried to give quota to Muslim community to appease them and which is against the provisions of constitution. Besides, supreme court has already laid down the upper limit of quota to 50% and the present situation is such that no any caste or religious group can be accommodated in this quota system without curtailing the quota of sc, st and obc. So technically you were right but practically you did a blunder in the sense that to counter Lalu's vicious propaganda, you sent a wrong message to Muslim community in order to save BJP's image as a party which supports reservation. You gave a message that you are against Muslim community, you don't want them to enjoy same fruits as other Hindu communities are enjoying. OK, SC doesn't allow reservation on the basis of religion, technically you are correct, but there was no need to unnecessarily position BJP against Muslim community on this issue. I think better way to fight Lalu, would have been to counter his argument by being offensive rather than defensive. Yes, Mohan Bhagwat has said for review, BJP also wants a review of quota system but not in scraping of reservation provided to these castes but on the issue, why sons of Lalu & other fat bellies, who maintain a bank balance of crores of rupees and cars worth 50 lakh without doing any work, should be given reservation? Why not a definition of creamy layer should be redefined? Why those, who are rich enough to enjoy all the privileges of development should be allowed to enjoy reservation? I think this line of attack would have been most appropriate to send a correct message to obc,st & sc caste groups with hitting the target much lethally.Besides, it would have saved BJP from positioning itself against Muslim community so openly.
My Conclusion & Prescription :
Being deprived of a big chunk of vote share, 17% in Bihar and almost 20% in UP, is a big disadvantage for BJP to score easy win in any election, be it state elections or a Loksabha election. Therefore, I suggest 1. BJP shouldn't do or say any thing, which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. Of course in doing so, it mustn't compromise with the principles of equality or try to appease them like other parties. Your call to Muslim and Hindu communities alike, whether they want to fight each other or poverty of their respective communities was the strongest message, you sent to this community for introspection. Therefore, BJP must make a conscious effort to avoid any statement which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. 2. How many Muslims know what schemes BJP government's Ministry of minority affairs have launched for their benefit? Very few. Your govt. should publicise effectively its schemes launched for welfare of muslims and other minorities. An effective message must be given through these minority schemes what BJP is doing for them. Presently I am afraid to say your govt. is lacking badly in this regard. 3. It must be understood clearly that even if they don't vote BJP, they must not be provoked to unite aggressively against BJP. In normal circumstances, their votes may get divided among so called secular parties of their choice, but if provoked, they adopt a policy of tactical voting with an objective to defeat BJP. It is therefore, not a wise policy to provoke them even if they don't vote BJP. 4. Last but most important of all, I think PM must adopt a conscious policy to invite prominent religious & social leaders from this community and interact with them regularly. Besides, it will be more effective if you could directly address them on various issues confronting them. What I want to convey is that a direct dialogue with them at periodic intervals by you, can go a long way in achieving their trust. Even if you are unable to win their trust, at least it will save BJP from their wrath in shape of tactical voting. Convincing them to vote for BJP must be the first priority but if the party fails to achieve this goal, then the next best option is to get their vote divided among their beloved pseudo secular parties, and to achieve this goal, it is necessary that BJP doesn't provoke them unnecessarily. In brief, you must interact with this community regularly.
Besides above, there are certain other reasons also, which need immediate attention by your party. Most important of them is the perception war, unleashed by your opponents since your govt. came to power. It appears as if an international conspiracy has been hatched to create a negative perception against your govt. A very big section of media is also involved in this conspiracy. And I am again afraid to say your party seems to have no strategic plan at all to fight this perception war. As this needs a wide spread discussion, I propose to write on this issue separately. However, it is to be noted that a lot of other writers too have written on this issue and I request you to please take note of their views, while making a plan to counter them.
Being a proud voter of BJP, I thought it necessary to bring a common man's analysis to your notice. I would feel highly satisfied and my efforts quite successful if views expressed here, could help BJP and you in any manner. Hope to hear you soon.
BJP was supposed to break this advantage by aligning more allies and/or by other strategic methods, which unfortunately it failed to achieve. Naturally, in a highly polarized election where even a minor 1 to 2% vote swing can bring dramatic results, BJP suffered a very high casualty due to its inability to bridge this gap of approximately 5.5% vote share, which was the advantage with Nitish-Lalu combine from day one.
I don't think an organisation, which arose from 2 seats in parliament to a ruling position in the center today, should unnecessarily get submerged in disappointment and gloom over this issue as victory and defeat are part & parcel of our every day life. However, as I find you always saying, we must learn from our mistakes and make ladder to reach top from the very stones thrown by opponents, I would like to discuss a few points which I think was a blunder by our strategic planners including you and which must be addressed in future.
1. No local face in Bihar :
I think this was a strategic blunder.Let us analyse it why? Mr. Amit Shah did his first blunder in Delhi when he projected Kiran Bedi at a last moment, just a few days before election to counter Kejriwal. This move was wrong in 2 ways.1st, it gave a wrong message to lakhs of BJP cadre that party can dump them any time by installing an outsider just to win an election. They were thoroughly disappointed and discouraged which reflected in the Delhi result. 2nd, the projected CM face didn't get enough time to work extensively with the voters and consolidate his position.
Any way, Shah learnt the lesson and decided not to project any local leader in the next coming elections. Consequently, he didn't project any local leader as CM candidate in next 3 elections which took place in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand; and yet won all of them. However, I am afraid to say he learnt a wrong lesson. I firmly believe that state elections can't be won by projecting simply a central leader's face, including such a powerful magnetic leader like Narendra Modi, bypassing local leadership. Modi's face could be a force multiplier as it happened in MP, Gujrat, Rajsthan, Uttarakhand but can't be a solo state winner as we saw in Bihar. Now, opponents of my view may raise a question as to why in that case, BJP was successful in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand where no local CM face was projected? My answer to this question is, in these states opponents of BJP too hadn't projected any CM face and therefore, both the parties stood at the same level playing field. Consequently, PM's face made all the difference as force multiplier. But this was not the case in Bihar, where Mahagathbandhan projected a highly successful CM face in shape of Nitish. All pre poll surveys were saying clearly that Nitish's acceptance rate as CM is the highest in Bihar, in spite of that no local face was projected to counter it. Bihar BJP had a very effective and a very good & popular face in shape of Sushil Modi, who was deputy CM during BJP-Nitish joint govt. People remembered his face because his face too appeared frequently in media highlighting achievements of joint govt. He was finance minister in Nitish govt. and main architect of whatever development Nitish govt. could achieve at that time. So, if BJP had projected him as its CM face, people would have recognized him immediately, that yes, he was the BJP man with Nitish, who brought development in Bihar together. Besides, he comes from an OBC background, was an added advantage which BJP could have en cashed easily by highlighting this fact with slight imagination. Any way, that opportunity was missed by the planners, I have no doubt about it.
Not only that, BJP think tank committed even a bigger blunder than above one, by projecting only 2 leaders, both outsiders in shape of Amit Shah and Modi on the posters of Bihar; outsiders in the sense that they both belonged to Gujrat, outside Bihar. Very big posters overlooked voters of Bihar with not a single local leader visible on it . Why was Shah's face included side by side Modi in stead of local leaders, I am yet to understand the logic behind it ? Though a correction perhaps was made later on, but it was too late because Lalu was able to highlight this point successfully by then. A defensive PM was forced to clarify this point but enough damage was already done by that time, besides, the explanation too was not convincing.
My Conclusion & prescription :
No state election can be won without a number of efficient, loyal and popular local leaders. Central leadership should try to cultivate and groom local leadership with much care and affection, same way as a gardener grooms various flowers of his garden. I strongly believe that a local CM candidate should be democratically elected by the party much before actual state election, may be 3 or 4 yrs before, and he should be given enough time to lead from the front. Central leadership role must be confined to see if (1) this person is unflinchingly loyal to the party or not, what is his loyalty history, (2) this person has leadership quality in him or not, can he work in a team and inspire his team mates, what is his track record in this regard, and (3) has this person a vision for his state, can he work tirelessly to fulfill his vision.
I am afraid to say central leadership has failed so far in projecting and grooming local leadership. Mr Shah might be a good strategist but I have not seen any thing so far on ground which gives any indication that he is moving in this direction with a long term prospective.Take the example of Delhi and UP. Almost 9 months have passed but Delhi BJP is still a rudderless unit drifting here and there without any purpose or planning in absence of a future CM face. Congress is far ahead of BJP in this regard. Likewise, UP election is not so far, yet there is no local popular face which could evoke confidence among people towards BJP. If this drifting of local unit continued and Shah thinks he can win UP election by projecting only Modi's face as he did in Bihar, he is bound to face same water loo as he faced in Bihar. Once again, Modi's face could be a powerful force multiplier but can't be a solo winner of state election. It is still not too late, Shah must address this issue immediately in UP, elect a prospective CM face there, ask him to prove his leadership quality and galvanize the state unit from its slumber.
2. Lack of strong network among SC, ST and OBC :
As analysed above, the biggest reason for defeat in Bihar was the vote share math, which was decisively against BJP from day one. Shah tried his best to beat this math but failed miserably because of two fundamental reasons ; 1st, his assessment of alliance leaders clout among these sections of people proved to be wrong and 2nd, BJP's own performance among these sections of people proved to be less than what it achieved in 2014. A thorough analysis must be made to know the reasons of its almost 5% less vote share performance in compare to 2014 results.However, it is to be noted that even if BJP had performed at 2014 level,still it would have been short of at least 10% to clinch a decisive victory over Lalu-Nitish combine. It is to be further noted that such vote share can't be increased over night without a long term planning. It requires a lot of hard work on ground with high visibility to the targeted section. It may take years to succeed if every thing goes in a planned manner. Stitching a combination of sc, st and obc leaders outside your own party is an option no doubt, but it is just a temporary solution, not a permanent one.Other parties representing these sections coming to your alliance have their own self interest, and therefore, can ditch the alliance any day if it doesn't suit them. Best option is to cultivate your own band of young leaders from SC, ST & OBC communities and groom them to perform party's "increase your base vote " program. A lot of hard work is needed to achieve this goal. Fortunately, I see a silver lining in this defeat in Bihar, as it has given a timely reminder to BJP central leadership to work tirelessly in remaining three and half years still left in next 2019 Loksabha election, and this time frame is sufficient to bring substantial change on ground both in Bihar and UP.
I am pained to say that 3 Prime Minister's social security schemes ie.1.Atal Pension Yojana, 2.PM Suraksha Bima Yojana and 3.PM Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana along with one Mudra Bank Yojana - these 4 PM schemes have a potential to bring revolutionary change in life of OBC, SC and ST, and bring them into BJP fold in a large number but no focus was given to take advantage of spreading vote share through these schemes. You can break the sway of caste politics only if these people feel a genuine urge to go to BJP for solution of their problems and help. You always invite innovative ideas to conceive and implement schemes related to various aspects of governance. Same way I suggest, please invite innovative ideas on how BJP can penetrate in lower and deprived sections of society. BJP president must chalk out an action plan on the basis of these suggestions.
My Conclusion & Prescription :
Bihar results have given a clear lesson that until you increase your vote share in OBC, ST & SC section of society, forget any victory against a combined strength of opposition parties in any state, be it Bihar or UP. Bihar election has presented a model for dying opposition parties to unite and fight for survival. Previously, opposition used to unite against Congress but now they are trying to unite against BJP. It is a recognition of BJP's rising strength on one side and gradual decline of Congress on other. However, BJP must concentrate on spreading its core strength in lower and downtrodden sections of society, if it wants to counter their combined strength.They will try more and more to raise Mandal 2 as Lalu successfully did in Bihar, to emotionally blackmail backward & dalit voters.This is my personal experience that a dalit or any one from any community becomes indebted to you, if you have helped him or her in any difficult situation. BJP should form help groups at each village level to help these sections of people in their hours of need. PM's 4 schemes as mentioned above could prove much helpful in achieving this target. Innovative ideas must be invited from young think tanks and implemented to achieve this goal.
A strong network of BJP among obc,sc,& st is all the more essential from one another angle also. BJP's vote share is almost zero in a big segment of population ie. Muslims. This is one of the biggest disadvantage BJP faces against its opponents. To offset this disadvantage, it has no other alternative except to enhance its vote base among lower & downtrodden segments of population. Therefore, BJP needs to double its efforts to spread party's vote base in this particular segment of society.
3. Muslim Vote Bank : BJP a handicapped non starter :
BJP is handicapped by birth. In any race, one who starts early is the possible winner but BJP is handicapped in the sense that whenever the race begins, its opponents are far ahead of it on the first whistle itself because of 17% Muslim vote share in Bihar and 19.5% in UP. Since independence, it has been instilled in Muslim community's mind that BJP is their enemy no1. Successive pseudo secular governments, specially Congress in center and SP, JDU, CPI, CPM, Mamta, Mayavati etc.in states, have been practicing vote bank politics by throwing lollipops to them. Once they realized that Muslim community can be manipulated to vote en block like a herd of sheep, they adopted two methods to achieve this goal ;1st, throw some lollipops to them to show they are their biggest well wishers, and 2nd, always create a psycho fear in their mind against BJP in order to polarize their vote in support of these parties. Unfortunately, BJP has been continuously raising objection to this appeasement policy of its opponents, which it thinks is against the principle of equality. They want equal treatment to both the communities. However, this opposition of appeasement makes suspicion of Muslim community all the more firm that BJP is their enemy. Any right thinking Muslim with an impartial analysis can very easily see through this game but as I said above, this community has a characteristics of a herd mentality.
What should be the strategy of BJP in such a scenario towards this community? I think your 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" was the first real and genuine strategy, which has a potential to turn this community towards BJP. You started Loksabha campaign on a correct note and I think a good number of muslims voted you also. Having said this, I am pained to say that in recent past, messages going from BJP to this community is not so encouraging. Even your campaign in Bihar disappointed a literate section of this community, which is not biased like others. In order to counter Lalu, you said these Mandal parties are plotting to cut reservation quota and transfer it to religious communities to appease them. Technically you are correct because Lalu, Nitish & Congress all of them have tried to give quota to Muslim community to appease them and which is against the provisions of constitution. Besides, supreme court has already laid down the upper limit of quota to 50% and the present situation is such that no any caste or religious group can be accommodated in this quota system without curtailing the quota of sc, st and obc. So technically you were right but practically you did a blunder in the sense that to counter Lalu's vicious propaganda, you sent a wrong message to Muslim community in order to save BJP's image as a party which supports reservation. You gave a message that you are against Muslim community, you don't want them to enjoy same fruits as other Hindu communities are enjoying. OK, SC doesn't allow reservation on the basis of religion, technically you are correct, but there was no need to unnecessarily position BJP against Muslim community on this issue. I think better way to fight Lalu, would have been to counter his argument by being offensive rather than defensive. Yes, Mohan Bhagwat has said for review, BJP also wants a review of quota system but not in scraping of reservation provided to these castes but on the issue, why sons of Lalu & other fat bellies, who maintain a bank balance of crores of rupees and cars worth 50 lakh without doing any work, should be given reservation? Why not a definition of creamy layer should be redefined? Why those, who are rich enough to enjoy all the privileges of development should be allowed to enjoy reservation? I think this line of attack would have been most appropriate to send a correct message to obc,st & sc caste groups with hitting the target much lethally.Besides, it would have saved BJP from positioning itself against Muslim community so openly.
My Conclusion & Prescription :
Being deprived of a big chunk of vote share, 17% in Bihar and almost 20% in UP, is a big disadvantage for BJP to score easy win in any election, be it state elections or a Loksabha election. Therefore, I suggest 1. BJP shouldn't do or say any thing, which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. Of course in doing so, it mustn't compromise with the principles of equality or try to appease them like other parties. Your call to Muslim and Hindu communities alike, whether they want to fight each other or poverty of their respective communities was the strongest message, you sent to this community for introspection. Therefore, BJP must make a conscious effort to avoid any statement which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. 2. How many Muslims know what schemes BJP government's Ministry of minority affairs have launched for their benefit? Very few. Your govt. should publicise effectively its schemes launched for welfare of muslims and other minorities. An effective message must be given through these minority schemes what BJP is doing for them. Presently I am afraid to say your govt. is lacking badly in this regard. 3. It must be understood clearly that even if they don't vote BJP, they must not be provoked to unite aggressively against BJP. In normal circumstances, their votes may get divided among so called secular parties of their choice, but if provoked, they adopt a policy of tactical voting with an objective to defeat BJP. It is therefore, not a wise policy to provoke them even if they don't vote BJP. 4. Last but most important of all, I think PM must adopt a conscious policy to invite prominent religious & social leaders from this community and interact with them regularly. Besides, it will be more effective if you could directly address them on various issues confronting them. What I want to convey is that a direct dialogue with them at periodic intervals by you, can go a long way in achieving their trust. Even if you are unable to win their trust, at least it will save BJP from their wrath in shape of tactical voting. Convincing them to vote for BJP must be the first priority but if the party fails to achieve this goal, then the next best option is to get their vote divided among their beloved pseudo secular parties, and to achieve this goal, it is necessary that BJP doesn't provoke them unnecessarily. In brief, you must interact with this community regularly.
Besides above, there are certain other reasons also, which need immediate attention by your party. Most important of them is the perception war, unleashed by your opponents since your govt. came to power. It appears as if an international conspiracy has been hatched to create a negative perception against your govt. A very big section of media is also involved in this conspiracy. And I am again afraid to say your party seems to have no strategic plan at all to fight this perception war. As this needs a wide spread discussion, I propose to write on this issue separately. However, it is to be noted that a lot of other writers too have written on this issue and I request you to please take note of their views, while making a plan to counter them.
Being a proud voter of BJP, I thought it necessary to bring a common man's analysis to your notice. I would feel highly satisfied and my efforts quite successful if views expressed here, could help BJP and you in any manner. Hope to hear you soon.
*****
