Never take a decision with prejudiced brain

Management  

           

                    Golden Rules to take a Correct Decision 

                                                       (Part-1)

           Never take a Decision with Prejudiced Brain 

Taking correct decision in a difficult situation is quite a daunting task one faces in his day to day life. Most of us are perplexed and confused what to do or what not to do. We are afraid of its consequences, whether the decision taken will result in achieving the targeted objective or fail? If the objective is achieved so much so good but if not, what will be the quantum of loss? Will it be heavy or minor? Some of us become even sick with fear just thinking its consequences. But there must be some method, some technique to arrive at a correct decision. I have therefore tried to solve this maze based on my personal experience and on some well known historical facts related to it. I request my learned friends, readers, writers, thinkers & well wishers to contribute their input in this regard. I will publish them in 2nd part of this article.  

In first part, I will discuss what are the conditions when one should not take a decision immediately, rather take some time to cool down. A cool and unprejudiced mind is the first step in right direction of a right decision.  

                 " Revenge is a dish that tastes better when served cold "

said Corleone in the famous novel "The Godfather" written by Mario Puzo in 1969. Why did Puzo give more emphasis on being cold in his famous novel? The reason is obvious. For being cold, lapse of some time is necessary. Any incident, which requires revenge must be kept in a box of time for a while to make the mind cool down, because a hot mind can't take a rational decision. An incident which makes a man angry has an immediate impact on his brain. An anger filled brain makes his mind disbalanced, unable to think rationally. His urge for revenge is so strong that either he is unable to see his opponents strong points or his biased mind makes him underestimate them. He is unable to analyze his situation logically. What is true for revenge is true for taking other rational decisions also. So, the first rule one must follow is :

1. Never take a decision when you are angry.

Give your mind some time to cool down before taking a final decision, because a decision taken in state of anger, is bound to be wrong most of times. I would say 90% out of 100. As stated above, a free and cool mind is necessary to take a correct and proper decision. If the mind is biased or prejudiced because of some external influence like anger, excessive emotional attachment or some other factor, its ability to analyze things in an impartial and balanced manner is affected. Due to influenced state of mind, he may overlook some essential facts and aspects, underestimate their impact, resulting in a wrong decision. 
I will quote a good example from the same book i.e. "The Godfather" itself. When Sonny hears from his weeping sister Connie how savagely her husband Carlo had beaten her, he becomes so furious that he instantly decides going to Connie's house in town and punish her husband. In his furious state of mind he is unable to think rationally, it never occurred to him that it could be a plot to drag him out of his fortified headquarters. 

                          Sonny Corleone beating his sister Connie's husband Carlo 

This is a perfect example of how a brain influenced with anger can overlook some essential and vital facts completely, resulting in fatal decisions. The furious war between the five mafia families of New York had already started; each day there were casualties from both sides and the other families had already reached a conclusion, there was no other way to break this stalemate unless they eliminated Sonny, the working head of Corleone family. In such a grim situation, before moving out into open, Sonny should have thought twice whether his going out to Connie's apartment was a prudent decision. Even in such a fierce war situation, it never occurred to him, it could be a frame up to drag him out. He overlooked a very simple and glaring fact which should have come to his mind in a natural way, but it didn't because of his furious state of mind. This one error of judgement, a decision taken in angered state of mind, cost him his life. 

                                       Sonny Corleone gunned down by five mafia families 

In our personal day to day life also, we face similar situations where we make the fatal mistake of taking decisions in our angered state of mind, and I am 100% sure of such decisions resulting in greater loss to the person concerned. I myself have taken several decisions in angered state of mind and repented later on. So the first rule is never take a decision when you are angry. Take some time for your mind to cool down. This cooling period may be of 1hr., 1day, 1month and may be even a few years as Sonny's father Don Corleone waited for.  

2. Never take a decision with a prejudiced brain :

A person's brain is prejudiced not only because of anger as seen above; there are a lot of other factors also like love, affection, relationship, hate, arrogance, greed, attitude, fear, emotional attachment, pre-conceived notions and so on. You will be amazed to note that love, affection, relationship, even emotional attachment or soft corner for some one may prejudice your brain and could cloud your reasoning resulting in an extremely bad decision.

Love, Affection, Relationship, Emotional Attachment : 

Have you ever realized sometimes a situation arises where you have to take a decision in which one of your daughter, son, relative or some one else you are sentimentally attached to is involved on one side, and a lesser known or unattached person on other? Analyze your decisions taken in such situations. You will find most of your decisions taken under such circumstances were wrong. Why? Because your love, affection & sentimental attachment with your loved one made your brain prejudiced. You were unable to analyze the situation in an impartial way, you were unable to see the other side of picture with neutral eyes. I remember two such critical situations in my life where I had to take a decision which had a long lasting impact on our family, and in both I failed. 

The biggest example of such bad decision in modern history of India, I am of the firm view, was taken by non other than so called father of our nation, Mahatma Gandhi. Though he took several decisions with prejudiced brain, but his one decision proved so fatal for India that we, the people of India, are still facing its consequences. His emotional attachment & soft corner for Nehru prejudiced his brain to such an extent that he overruled the majority decision of 12 out of 15 State Congress Committees favoring Sardar Patel as first Prime Minister of India. Even remaining 3 state committees didn't recommend Nehru's name for PM, yet he decided to impose his will on entire nation as a true dictator and got Nehru elected as first PM of India. 

Inner Democracy in Congress Party was the first casualty of his prejudiced decision, which is still going on. History has given enough proof that had Patel been chosen first PM of India, as was the consensus at that time, the nation would not have suffered the humiliating defeat of 1962 war, even Kashmir problem would not have lingered so far. Patel had written a letter to Nehru, a few days before his death in 1950, almost 12 year before actual war with China, warning him about mischievous motives of China, yet Nehru didn't pay any attention to it, resulting in humiliating defeat in 1962. After his death, C. Rajgopalachary, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, Dr. Rajendra Prasad and several other eminent personalities of freedom struggle confessed in writing that had Patel been PM in place of Nehru, it would have been better for India. What I want to say is, that bigger the post or responsibility you hold, bigger is the impact of your one wrong prejudiced decision. Your emotional attachment could blind your capacity of reasoning, your ability to analyze things in an impartial & neutral way. In history, there are several such examples as Mr. Gandhi. 

Fear of Criticism, Fear of Defeat, Fear of Unwanted Results :

Fear might be of several shades and colors; fear of criticism, fear of defeat, fear of unwanted results & so on. Most of politicians, business managers, even family heads are afraid of taking unpleasant decisions fearing wide spread criticism. Even when a detailed analysis of the problem & solution suggests taking a particular course of action, they are unable to do so fearing imaginary criticism or fear of unwanted results. Fear makes a decision maker either paralyzed as we saw with Dr. Manmohan Singh, or opt for easiest short cut to come out of the difficult situation. The problems remain same even after his decision. 

China was salami slicing our territory continuously, year after year, even after humiliating defeat of 1962. Every Congress or non-congress PM knew it, but non dared to confront China, fearing a full fledged war. China, very cleverly used to move forward 4 kilometers under Indian territory and come back 3 kilometers under so called peace agreement. It suited govts of the day too, as very happily they used to portray it as their victory to domestic audience. Came Narendra Modi govt on scene in 2014. His initial years went in understanding the Chinese game and persuading them to resist such tactics. But once he understood their game, he had to take a final decision. Fear of a full fledged war and an unwanted result along with wide spread criticism by political parties were real threats in his way of taking a final decision. But he decided not to be prejudiced with these factors, made elaborate arrangements before taking final decision, and gave Indian army free hand for a tit for tat. Result ? Today Indian army has captured almost all the dominating heights, Gurung Hill, Magar Hill, Requin La, Rezang La, Mokhpari etc. over Chinese positions near Finger4, the place of confrontation. Chinese had intruded almost 8 kilometers inside Indian territory and retreated almost 2-3 kilometers, but no more such tactics working this time. In tit for tat, Indian army has captured more than what Chinese did and are now in a better position to give them befitting reply. 

                          Indian army sitting on top overlooking Chinese positions

No more 4 kilometers forward and 3 kilometers backward. Go back to original position or face the tune. Chinese are in catch 22 situation, neither go back because of loss of face, nor move forward because of heavy loss expected due to  Indian army sitting on their head. Indian forces have replied them in their own coin, capturing all those unmanned heights which were not manned before, thereby taking an advantageous position overlooking their entire activities from top, even their garrison under firing range of Indian troops. This is what happens when you don't let fear influence your decision and move after preparing for the worst.

Hatred, Arrogance, Greed, Pre Conceived Notions :

Normally when you hate some one or think yourself superior to others, your capacity to take impartial and rational decision is over powered by a pre conceived notion about the concerned person. You can't see his good points or even if you see them, your hate or arrogance doesn't allow you to see their merits. Naturally, your prejudiced brain leads you to a decision which proves to be irrational, illogical and a blunder in terms of result. 

Hitler committed the biggest crime in human history due to his one prejudiced decision that was based on hate against Jews. It is estimated nearly 6 million Jews were massacred during his regime. History is full of stories such mass murderers & holocausts based on hate. Alauddin Khalji, of Khalji dynasty ordered the massacre of more than 30,000 Hindus of Chittor as per details of Amir Khusrau. About 5600 Catholic Christians of Mangalore were persecuted by the order of so called secular ruler Tipu Sultan. More than 1,00,000 Rajputs of Mewat, almost their entire population, were eliminated by Ghiyasuddin Balban of Delhi Sultanate in 1265. Even today, this mind set of hatred towards other race & religion hasn't vanished. Entire world is witnessing Islamic terrorism almost on daily basis. Hate & arrogance is the root cause of such unrest.

As for greed, what sort of havoc it can create can be seen specially in stock markets. Greed makes you leap in dark, hoping to double treble your fortune. 

                                          Leap forward of Greed

It is a sort of gamble which may or may not result in achieving your objective. But the question that arises here, should a company CEO or an authority responsible for making decision, take such gamble? If he succeeds, all round praise; but if he fails, as this probability in such cases is very high, his one decision will ruin the prospect of entire company. I am of the firm view that executives must not take any decision whose results are based totally on gamble. Some people in business circles say, no risk no gain. But one must understand the difference between greed and risk. Risk you take fully knowing what will happen if you fail, and therefore you take precaution according to your condition & appetite. Greed leads you to leap forward in dark, without taking any precaution. Remember the story of King Midas? He got a blessing that any thing he touched would turn into gold? His greed for gold didn't let him take any precaution as he was unable to assess the risks involved. His brain prejudiced with greed made him bypass the entire process of analysis, otherwise he would have very easily foreseen his daughter being turned into a statue made of gold .  

Conclusion:

1. Never take a decision when you are in prejudiced state of mind. Give it a

   proper cooling time before taking a final decision.

2. Anger, love, relationship, emotional attachment, hate, arrogance, fear, Greed,

   pre-conceived notions etc. are some of the factors that  frequently cause your

   brain to be prejudiced.

                                                                                                  ******

                            

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Motivation can achieve miracles

Motivation

                   Motivation can achieve miracles

Can you compel a bull to dance? A bull, dancing continuously for 1 to 3 minutes in circle, like an expert dancer, isn't it a miracle ? Can any one with whatever be the amount of force or physical torture, compel a bull to dance? Not possible at all. But I saw exactly this miracle happening, a few years ago, on the New Road of Kathmandu, Nepal. A few young street boys of New Road, had achieved this feat by applying their brain and motivating the bull to do so with its own sweet will, without use of any force or torture. 

Long ago, they were the days when I frequently used to visit Kathmandu, in order to perform some of my business engagements. One day when I was walking on the New Road, one of the busiest and prominent road of Kathmandu, a strange thing happened. Suddenly there was a big commotion on the road, people started running helter-skelter in whatever direction they found some space. In the pandemonium that followed, I started to get body blows from all directions and being pushed backward by the crowd. I was unable to understand the reason of this sudden commotion, when suddenly I noticed a bull charging on the crowd and running in the same direction where I was standing. It was then that I realized the danger and panicked. There was no time to think any more and so, I too started to run along with the crowd. Almost about 2 minutes the bull chased us and then stopped abruptly. By then, I had climbed on the stairs of a near by restaurant situated on first floor of a building around the road. The entire New Road was deserted within seconds and was clearly visible now from the first floor of the restaurant. The only visible object on the road was the bull, which had stopped running and was looking towards its tail, trying to reach to the point where some object was tied on its tail. In order to grab the tied object, it started moving in circle bending its entire body & neck like some round object. It was a beautiful bull dance indeed, never seen before. The bull was moving in a rounded circle continuously for 2-3 minutes, trying to grab the tied eatable on its tail, stopping due to severe strain for some times and then starting to dance again. 

How was this miracle achieved? In fact the story behind this miracle too is very interesting. This entire feat was achieved by some, what we call, "mischievous street boys" of New Road. In order to create some funny moments and entertain people on the road, these mischievous boys had tied a bunch of  "Rayo ka sag", a local variety of tasty spinach, on the tail of the bull. The spinach was placed on such a strategic location of the tail, that the bull could not grab it so easily. It was "So near yet so far". The bull was making all its efforts to grab it, trying his mouth to reach its tail, thereby making its whole body curved in round shape. His continuous efforts to grab the "Rayo ka sag" was producing a dancing effect. Because of severe strain the bull was exerting to reach its tail, it used to stop for a minute or two to take rest, and then started to dance again. The entire New Road crowd was standing on both sides of the road, enjoying this miraculous spectacle with loud roar of laughter. Alarmed by loud noise, the bull used to charge the crowd at regular intervals, people again running helter-skelter in all directions. I too was enjoying this grand show from the stairs of the restaurant and thinking how did they do it.

                                                           

                 Dancing Bull with with a bunch of spinach tied on its tail

Motivation can achieve miracles. Though I forgot this incident with passage of time, but the image of dancing bull remained stored in my subconscious mind. Today, when I recalled this incident again and tried to analyze it, one thing is clear. The children had unknowingly applied the biggest motivating factor to achieve this miracle. The "Rayo ka sag" tied on its tail was the biggest motivating factor that the bull was tasked to achieve, and in doing so, it presented a hilarious dance, which was the main objective of children.

Do you remember those dark days, when in order to achieve higher production in factories, employers used to exploit employees by putting all sorts of restrictions, curtailments of rights etc.? Instead of working for 8 hrs., workers were forced to work for longer hrs., no leave, no overtime, no PF, no bonus, no pension, no other social securities. The underlined reasoning behind this thought was - " If you whipped the horse hard, horse will run faster."

                 

So they used to keep their employees on a tighter grip, whipping regularly with new restrictions, regulations, primarily aimed to increase the production without paying any extra money. Incentives in their eyes was wastage of money which eroded the profit. But how long you can go on whipping the horse continuously? The horse will run faster for some time on being whipped, but become slower and slower once the fear of whipping ceased. And there is every possibility that the horse will overthrow you if you go on whipping again and again. After all, fear too has a limitation and if you cross that " Lakshman Rekha", even fear effect becomes zero. Instead, the person starts hating you and becomes emboldened enough even to harm you.

Hence, the modern method of management to get things done, has changed from "Chabuk (force) to Chabena (incentive in form of eatable)". It has now been understood clearly that the productivity can be increased by force only for some time being, but not on permanent basis. A person's own sweet will is the only alternative to increase productivity on permanent basis, and for that to happen, motivation is essential. The bull was dancing from his own sweet will, without any one striking him with a whip to do so. The motivation factor was eatable which was tied on its tail. Management experts were the street boys, who applied their brain imaginatively and devised a way to get things done. 

How could we motivate some one? Well, the answer is, there is no any uniform method; you have to devise your own motivating factor and method in the context of person you desire to motivate. Finding a motivating factor, though appears to be  difficult, but is not so difficult at all. In the offices, factories, administration and other working arena, most of the employees and professionals get motivated by incentives in the form of money & perks. Such incentives tied with targets can do wonders. However, it is to be noted that not all workers, professionals or authorities get motivated by money & perks alone. For some, who have reached upper layer of administration, money is not so important as the other factors like desire to achieve some higher posts, name, fame & some foot prints on the horizon of time. Do you remember the legendary Sir T. N. Sheshan, the famous Chief Election Commissioner of India, who changed the face of electioneering in India. Do you think the motivating factor behind whatever he achieved was money or perks? Not at all. He was motivated by call of his own inner conscience, that inspired him to take every possible measures to conduct free & fair elections all over India. Looting of ballot papers, ballot boxes, casting of votes by force, impersonation, prevention of voters from voting by Bahubali candidates, intimidation, firing etc. were common scenes in every election. Mr. Sheshan changed the entire face of electioneering within a short span of his tenure. It is obvious that sometimes arousing some one's conscience is a better way to motivate than to offer money & other perks.

How could we apply it in family & social arena? Motivating industrial workers, office employees, administrative officials and other categories of employees is a bit easier than motivating family members and social acquaintances. It is because we are closely related with such persons and money & perks may not be as much effective motivational factor as in other cases. Here, the motivational factors drastically change from money to love, affection, comfort, care, respect etc. If you want to motivate your kid, you have to identify his/her likes & dislikes, interests, area of comfort etc. and plan a strategy accordingly. With a lot of love, affection and encouragement, you can motivate him/her to achieve the target. For this to happen, you will have to gain his/her confidence by playing, story telling, working jointly on some funny project and by some other methods. Stories are one of the most powerful tool to motivate kids.

So far friends, relatives & other social acquaintances are concerned, you have to identify their true feelings and attitude, related to concerned issue. Encourage them to speak their mind by showing genuine love, affection, respect and concern to their problems. Tap their interests. Connect and build relationship. Appeal to their emotions. Motivate him to dream again and gradually encourage him to set a goal as well as a time frame to achieve it. 

Conclusion : Application of motivation is not limited to industrial, business, administration or other commercial areas alone. Have you ever noticed, a new SP comes in a district headquarter and the entire gang of renowned criminals start fleeing the district? A new CEO comes in a company replacing the old one, and the loss making business unit starts making profit within a short span of time. A new political leader emerges on the horizon of nation and suddenly the same set of officials, bureaucrats start working & giving results, in fact the whole nation starts moving on the path of Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat.        

Sports, Politics, Education, Health, Spiritualism, Religion, Defence, Police, Family, Society, you name any field where motivation can't be applied. Mahatma Gandhi,  Dr. Radhakrishnan, Dr. Abdul Kalam, Sister Florence Nightingale, Dr. Dwarka Nath Kotnis, Swami Vivekanand, Swami Dayanand Saraswati, Adi Guru Shankaracharya, Param Vir Chakra recipient Maj. Somnath Sharma, Flying officer Nirmal jit Singh Sekhon, DGP K.P.S.Gill, IPS officer Kiran Bedi, Baba Amte, Sri Dhirubhai Ambani, Captain M.S.Dhoni, - there are numerous such names from various walks of our lives, who not only motivated people to achieve, but have left their imprints on the horizon of time. Why not read their biographies? It will be an interesting study to know how they motivated people. 

                                                                             

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A Soldier Looking Back (Poem)

                         A  soldier  looking  back

- Jagdish Pd. Gupta

I had an impression ;
Of a soldier looking back
Under intense confusion
And enormous shock .

Don`t know how , but I had
May be, my intuition
Or your face , looking so sad.
Why so confused O soldier !

Is it that your weapons not good enough

Short of range and not so tough ?

Is it that you suspect reinforcements ,

Compelled to curb & shorten your movements ?

Why so shocked O soldier !

Is it that you saw some thing unexpected

Affecting your plans , making you dejected ?

Is it that you doubt your route

Fear of  its length , made you mute ?

Listen minutely O warrior  !

No matter how long or short your track

A bundle of flowers or logs on your back

What ultimately matters is not the cost

But a crowning glory , victory utmost.

Tighten your armor  O fighter  !

For all the victories grow in the mind first

A slight doubt and the goal is lost

Sweetest is the taste of success

That comes after long toil and weariness.

 
 


*****।

                      

A Bihar Voter's letter to our beloved PM Modiji

                                                                                                                          


Respected Modiji,

I am a proud voter of Bihar, who voted for BJP in the recent assembly election of 2015 but unfortunately, crores of voters like me were disappointed when the results came out. I am not writing this letter just to find fault with planners, organizers and people responsible with making strategy of election campaign in Bihar, nor I believe like others that it is a very big defeat for BJP. In fact it was a fight against a simple math which gave perfect advantage to Nitish-Lalu led Mahagathbandhan from day one but your campaign made us believe that this advantage has been neutralised. Nitish, a shrewd politician had analysed perfectly well  on the basis of 2014 Loksabha election that neither he nor Lalu can win Bihar if they fought separately and therefore stitched a winning combination of 15.8%JDU + 20.1% Lalu + 8.4% Congress = 44.3% against 29.4% BJP + 6.4% LJP Paswan + 3% RLSP = 38.8% ie. approximately 5.5% more vote share aligned in favor of Nitish-Lalu-Congress Gathbandhan. 
BJP was supposed to break this advantage by aligning more allies and/or by other strategic methods, which unfortunately it failed to achieve. Naturally, in a highly polarized election where even a minor 1 to 2% vote swing can bring dramatic results, BJP suffered a very high casualty due to its inability to bridge this gap of approximately 5.5% vote share, which was the advantage with Nitish-Lalu combine from day one. 
I don't think an organisation, which arose from 2 seats in parliament to a ruling position in the center today, should unnecessarily get submerged in disappointment and gloom over this issue as victory and defeat are part & parcel of our every day life. However, as I find you always saying, we must learn from our mistakes and make ladder to reach top from the very stones thrown by opponents, I would like to discuss a few points which I think was a blunder by our strategic planners including you and which must be addressed in future. 

1. No local face in Bihar : 
I think this was a strategic blunder.Let us analyse it why? Mr. Amit Shah did his first blunder in Delhi when he projected Kiran Bedi at a last moment, just a few days before election to counter Kejriwal. This move was wrong in 2 ways.1st, it gave a wrong message to lakhs of BJP cadre that party can dump them any time by installing an outsider just to win an election. They were thoroughly disappointed and discouraged which reflected in the Delhi result. 2nd, the projected CM face didn't get enough time to work extensively with the voters and consolidate his position. 
Any way, Shah learnt the lesson and decided not to project any local leader in the next coming elections. Consequently, he didn't project any local leader as CM candidate in next 3 elections which took place in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand; and yet won all of them. However, I am afraid to say he learnt a wrong lesson. I firmly believe that state elections can't be won by projecting simply a central leader's face, including such a powerful magnetic leader like Narendra Modi, bypassing local leadership. Modi's face could be a force multiplier as it happened in MP, Gujrat, Rajsthan, Uttarakhand but can't be a solo state winner as we saw in Bihar. Now, opponents of my view may raise a question as to why in that case, BJP was successful in Maharastra, Haryana and Jharkhand where no local CM face was projected? My answer to this question is, in these states opponents of BJP too hadn't projected any CM face and therefore, both the parties stood at the same level playing field. Consequently, PM's face made all the difference as force multiplier. But this was not the case in Bihar, where Mahagathbandhan projected a highly successful CM face in shape of Nitish. All pre poll surveys  were saying clearly that Nitish's acceptance rate as CM is the highest in Bihar, in spite of that no local face was projected to counter it. Bihar BJP had a very effective and a very good & popular face in shape of Sushil Modi, who was deputy CM during BJP-Nitish joint govt. People remembered his face because his face too appeared frequently in media highlighting achievements of joint govt. He was finance minister in Nitish govt. and main architect of whatever development Nitish govt. could achieve at that time. So, if BJP had projected him as its CM face, people would have recognized him immediately, that yes, he was the BJP man with Nitish, who brought development in Bihar together. Besides, he comes from an OBC background, was an added advantage which BJP could have en cashed easily by highlighting this fact with slight imagination. Any way, that opportunity was missed by the planners, I have no doubt about it.
Not only that, BJP think tank committed even a bigger blunder than above one, by projecting only 2 leaders, both outsiders in shape of Amit Shah and Modi on the posters of Bihar; outsiders in the sense that they both belonged to Gujrat, outside Bihar. Very big posters overlooked voters of Bihar with not a single local leader visible on it . Why was Shah's face included side by side Modi in stead of local leaders, I am yet to understand the logic behind it ? Though a correction perhaps was made later on, but it was too late because Lalu was able to highlight this point successfully by then. A defensive PM was forced to clarify this point but enough damage was already done by that time, besides, the explanation too was not convincing. 
My Conclusion & prescription : 
No state election can be won without a number of efficient, loyal and popular local leaders. Central leadership should try to cultivate and groom local leadership with much care and affection, same way as a gardener grooms various flowers of his garden. I strongly believe that a local CM candidate should be democratically elected by the party much before actual state election, may be 3 or 4 yrs before, and he should be given enough time to lead from the front. Central leadership role must be confined to see if (1) this person is unflinchingly loyal to the party or not, what is his loyalty history, (2) this person has leadership quality in him or not, can he work in a team and inspire his team mates, what is his track record in this regard, and (3) has this person a vision for his state, can he work tirelessly to fulfill his vision. 
I am afraid to say central leadership has failed so far in projecting and grooming local leadership. Mr Shah might be a good strategist but I have not seen any thing so far on ground which gives any indication that he is moving in this direction with a long term prospective.Take the example of Delhi and UP. Almost 9 months have passed but Delhi BJP is still a rudderless unit drifting here and there without any purpose or planning in absence of a future CM face. Congress is far ahead of BJP in this regard. Likewise, UP election is not so far, yet there is no local popular face which could evoke confidence among people towards BJP. If this drifting of local unit continued and Shah thinks he can win UP election by projecting only Modi's face as he did in Bihar, he is bound to face same water loo as he faced in Bihar. Once again, Modi's face could be a powerful force multiplier but can't be a solo winner of state election. It is still not too late, Shah must address this issue immediately in UP, elect a prospective CM face there, ask him to prove his leadership quality and galvanize the state unit from its slumber.  

2. Lack of strong network among SC, ST and OBC : 
As analysed above, the biggest reason for defeat in Bihar was the vote share math, which was decisively against BJP from day one. Shah tried his best to beat this math but failed miserably  because of two fundamental reasons ; 1st, his assessment of alliance leaders clout among these sections of people proved to be wrong and 2nd, BJP's own performance among these sections of people proved to be less than what it achieved in 2014. A thorough analysis must be made to know the reasons of its almost 5% less vote share performance in compare to 2014 results.However, it is to be noted that even if BJP had performed at 2014 level,still it would have been short of at least 10% to clinch a decisive victory over Lalu-Nitish combine. It is to be further noted that such vote share can't be increased over night without a long term planning. It requires a lot of hard work on ground with high visibility to the targeted section. It may take years to succeed if every thing goes in a planned manner. Stitching a combination of sc, st and obc leaders outside your own party is an option no doubt, but it is just a temporary solution, not a permanent one.Other parties representing these sections coming to your alliance have their own self interest, and therefore, can ditch the alliance any day if it doesn't suit them. Best option is to cultivate your own band of young leaders from SC, ST & OBC communities and groom them to perform party's "increase your base vote " program. A lot of hard work is needed to achieve this goal. Fortunately, I see a silver lining in this defeat in Bihar, as it has given a timely reminder to BJP central leadership to work tirelessly in remaining three and half years still left in next 2019 Loksabha election, and this time frame is sufficient to bring substantial change on ground both in Bihar and UP.
I am pained to say that 3 Prime Minister's social security schemes ie.1.Atal Pension Yojana, 2.PM Suraksha Bima Yojana and 3.PM Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana along with one Mudra Bank Yojana - these 4 PM schemes have a potential to bring revolutionary change in life of OBC, SC and ST, and bring them into BJP fold in a large number but no focus was given to take advantage of spreading vote share through these schemes. You can break the sway of caste politics only if these people feel a genuine urge to go to BJP for solution of their problems and help.  You always invite innovative ideas to conceive and implement schemes related to various aspects of governance. Same way I suggest, please invite innovative ideas on how BJP can penetrate in lower and deprived sections of society. BJP president must chalk out an action plan on the basis of these suggestions.
My Conclusion & Prescription :
Bihar results have given a clear lesson that until you increase your vote share in OBC, ST & SC section of society, forget any victory against a combined strength of opposition parties in any state, be it Bihar or UP. Bihar election has presented a model for dying opposition parties to unite and fight for survival. Previously, opposition used to unite against Congress but now they are trying to unite against BJP. It is a recognition of BJP's rising strength on one side and gradual decline of Congress on other. However, BJP must concentrate on spreading its core strength in lower and downtrodden sections of society, if it wants to counter their combined strength.They will try more and more to raise Mandal 2 as Lalu successfully did in Bihar, to emotionally blackmail backward & dalit voters.This is my personal experience that a dalit or any one from any community becomes indebted to you, if you have helped him or her in any difficult situation. BJP should form help groups at each village level to help these sections of people in their hours of need. PM's 4 schemes as mentioned above could prove much helpful in achieving this target. Innovative ideas must be invited from young think tanks and implemented to achieve this goal. 
A strong network of BJP among obc,sc,& st is all the more essential from one another angle also. BJP's vote share is almost zero in a big segment of population ie. Muslims. This is one of the biggest disadvantage BJP faces against its opponents. To offset this disadvantage, it has no other alternative except to enhance its vote base among lower & downtrodden segments of population. Therefore, BJP needs to double its efforts to spread party's vote base in this particular segment of society.

3. Muslim Vote Bank : BJP a handicapped non starter : 
BJP is handicapped by birth. In any race, one who starts early is the possible winner but BJP is handicapped in the sense that whenever the race begins, its opponents are far ahead of it on the first whistle itself because of 17% Muslim vote share in Bihar and 19.5% in UP. Since independence, it has been instilled in Muslim community's mind that BJP is their enemy no1. Successive pseudo secular governments, specially Congress in center and SP, JDU, CPI, CPM, Mamta, Mayavati etc.in states, have been practicing vote bank politics by throwing lollipops to them. Once they realized that Muslim community can be manipulated to vote en block like a herd of sheep, they adopted two methods to achieve this goal ;1st, throw some lollipops to them to show they are their biggest well wishers, and 2nd, always create a psycho fear in their mind against BJP in order to polarize their vote in support of these parties. Unfortunately, BJP has been continuously raising objection to this appeasement policy of its opponents, which it thinks is against the principle of equality. They want equal treatment to both the communities. However, this opposition of appeasement makes suspicion of Muslim community all the more firm that BJP is their enemy. Any right thinking Muslim with an impartial analysis can very easily see through this game but as I said above, this community has a characteristics of a herd mentality.
What should be the strategy of BJP in such a scenario towards this community? I think your 'Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas" was the first real and genuine strategy, which has a potential to turn this community towards BJP. You started Loksabha campaign on a correct note and I think a good number of muslims voted you also. Having said this, I am pained to say that in recent past, messages going from BJP to this community is not so encouraging. Even your campaign in Bihar disappointed a literate section of this community, which is not biased like others. In order to counter Lalu, you said these Mandal parties are plotting to cut reservation quota and transfer it to religious communities to appease them. Technically you are correct because Lalu, Nitish & Congress all of them have tried to give quota to Muslim community to appease them and which is against the provisions of constitution. Besides, supreme court has already laid down the upper limit of quota to 50% and the present situation is such that no any caste or religious group can be accommodated in this quota system without curtailing the quota of sc, st and obc. So technically you were right but practically you did a blunder in the sense that to counter Lalu's vicious propaganda, you sent a wrong message to Muslim community in order to save BJP's image as a party which supports reservation. You gave a message that you are against Muslim community, you don't want them to enjoy same fruits as other Hindu communities are enjoying. OK, SC doesn't allow reservation on the basis of religion, technically you are correct, but there was no need to unnecessarily position BJP against Muslim community on this issue. I think better way to fight Lalu, would have been to counter his argument by being offensive rather than defensive. Yes, Mohan Bhagwat has said for review, BJP also wants a review of quota system but not in scraping of reservation provided to these castes but on the issue, why sons of Lalu & other fat bellies, who maintain a bank balance of crores of rupees and cars worth 50 lakh without doing any work, should be given reservation? Why not a definition of creamy layer should be redefined? Why those, who are rich enough to enjoy all the privileges of development should be allowed to enjoy reservation? I think this line of attack would have been most appropriate to send a correct message to obc,st & sc caste groups with hitting the target much lethally.Besides, it would have saved BJP from positioning itself against Muslim community so openly.
My Conclusion & Prescription : 
Being deprived of a big chunk of vote share, 17% in Bihar and almost 20% in UP, is a big disadvantage for BJP to score easy win in any election, be it state elections or a Loksabha election. Therefore, I suggest 1. BJP shouldn't do or say any thing, which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. Of course in doing so, it mustn't compromise with the principles of equality or try to appease them like other parties. Your call to Muslim and Hindu communities alike, whether they want to fight each other or poverty of their respective communities was the strongest message, you sent to this community for introspection. Therefore, BJP must make a conscious effort to avoid any statement which gives an impression that it is anti-muslim. 2. How many Muslims know what schemes BJP government's Ministry of minority affairs have launched for their benefit? Very few. Your govt. should publicise effectively its schemes launched for welfare of muslims and other minorities. An effective message must be given through these minority schemes what BJP is doing for them. Presently  I am afraid to say your govt. is lacking badly in this regard. 3. It must be understood clearly that even if they don't vote BJP, they must not be provoked to unite aggressively against BJP. In normal circumstances, their votes may get divided among so called secular parties of their choice, but if provoked, they adopt a policy of tactical voting with an objective to defeat BJP. It is therefore, not a wise policy to provoke them even if they don't vote BJP. 4. Last but most important  of all, I think PM must adopt a conscious policy to invite prominent religious & social leaders from this community and interact with them regularly. Besides, it will be more effective if you could directly address them on various issues confronting them. What I want to convey is that a direct dialogue with them at periodic intervals by you, can go a long way in achieving their trust. Even if you are unable to win their trust, at least it will save BJP from their wrath in shape of tactical voting. Convincing them to vote for BJP must be the first priority but if the party fails to achieve this goal, then the next best option is to get their vote divided among their beloved pseudo secular parties, and to achieve this goal, it is necessary that BJP doesn't provoke them unnecessarily. In brief, you must interact with this community regularly.

Besides above, there are certain other reasons also, which need immediate attention by your party. Most important of them is the perception war, unleashed by your opponents since your govt. came to power. It appears as if an international conspiracy has been hatched to create a negative perception against your govt. A very big section of media is also involved in this conspiracy. And I am again afraid to say your party seems to have no strategic plan at all to fight this perception war. As this needs a wide spread discussion, I propose to write on this issue separately. However, it is to be noted that a lot of other writers too have written on this issue and I request you to please take note of their views, while making a plan to counter them.   

Being a proud voter of BJP, I thought it necessary to bring a common man's analysis to your notice. I would feel highly satisfied and my efforts quite successful  if views expressed here, could help BJP and you in any manner.   Hope to hear you soon.                  
            

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Nirvighnam Kuru Me Dev, Sarv Karyeshu Sarvada

                                                   

                                 श्री वक्रतुंड  महाकाय  ।  सूर्य कोटी संप्रभ:॥

                                 निर्विघ्नम् कुरु मे देव । सर्व कार्येषु सर्वदा ॥ 

                      

I pray to Lord Ganesha, who has a huge body with a crooked trunk, and who is enlightened with rays (wisdom) of thousands of sun. O'lord, please help me in performing all my work all the time without any obstacle.   

Dear friends, 

When I thought of starting my own blog in English, a question confronted me continuously why should I add one more blog in the heap of already piled up blogs. Should I start one more blog when I am already having "सारांश", a Hindi language blog? After much analysis, I realized that the number of readers in Hindi language at social sites is still not as large as English at present.Therefore, one can reach to a much larger number of readers through English blog than Hindi; though of course, this language too is gaining ground quite rapidly after Google and others have made composing in Hindi quite easier to do. 

"Rainbow"- this is the name I have given to my blog because I propose to express my views and compose my articles, not limited to a particular subject. It will be truly a "Rainbow of my thoughts" on vivid subjects. I invite all my friends and well wishers to guide me in shaping this blog through their valued suggestions and blessings. 

Truly Yours

JPGupta   


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